HR Forecasting OBJECTIVES To give you practice in forecasting an organization's human resource needs.

HR Forecasting

OBJECTIVES

To give you practice in forecasting an organization’s human resource needs.

To familiarize you with some of the factors that affect an organization’s future human resource needs (e.g., growth, automation, turnover).

To familiarize you with the complexities involved in making human resource forecasts.

To point out that all human resource forecasting is based on assumptions and that these assumptions are critical to the accuracy of the forecast. Incorrect assumptions lead to erroneous forecasts.

INSTRUCTIONS

You may complete this assignment working individually or in pairs (I strongly recommend working in pairs).

Table 1: Current Staffing
Location/Job Total Per Branch (50 Branches)
Main Office Employees 400
Branch Employees 700 14
  Supervisors 200 4
  Tellers 500 10
Total Employees 1,100

You have been given the assignment of forecasting the human resource needs of the National Bank and Trust Company which currently employs approximately 1,100 people. The bank presently has a main office that requires the employment of 400 individuals.  The bank also has 50 established branch offices located throughout the Detroit metropolitan area, each of which employs approximately 14 individuals.  Branches within the bank differ considerably in size, but on average the 50 Detroit branches employ four supervisors and ten tellers/clerical personnel each. A breakdown of the bank’s current staffing is shown in Table 1; the per branch figures represent averages.

The bank is planning to implement two changes that will impact staffing levels.

Change 1: Installing automated teller machines (ATMs) in Detroit

During the past month, the bank has placed an order for 35 automated teller machines to be placed in its Detroit branch offices. These machines are scheduled to be in operation on December 31, one year from now. The bank has found that for each new ATM purchased, one less teller is needed, on average. On (but no sooner than) December 31 of Year 1, 35 ATMs will be placed in operation and replace 35 tellers. The new ATMs will not impact year-end staffing levels for Year 1. The ATMs will be fully operational for all of Year 2 and Year 3. The bank does not terminate any employees because of the new ATMs.  Rather, as tellers quit throughout the year, 35 are not replaced.

Change 2: Opening new branches in Grand Rapids

The bank expects to expand to the Grand Rapids metropolitan area, adding 38 branches during the next three years.  Each new branch will employ 14 individuals (four supervisors and ten tellers/clerical). The new automated teller machines will have no impact on the staffing of the new Grand Rapids branches.  New Grand Rapids branches are added as follows: 18 in Year 1, 12 in Year 2, and 8 in Year 3.

Your task: The bank has asked you to perform three human resource forecasting tasks. (Hint: I strongly suggest completing the three tasks in the order listed).  For each of the three years,

Determine the number of individuals that are employed at year-end assuming the bank is fully staffed.

Determine the number of employees that turn over.

Determine the number of employees that would need to be hired to ensure the organization is fully staffed at year-end.

Turnover & hiring assumptions:

Based on the assumptions given below, you are required to determine employee turnover and hiring requirements for the main office, the Detroit branches, and the Grand Rapids branches.  The bank would like to know this information for each of the next three years and for each of the major personnel categories (i.e., main office, supervisors, and tellers/clerical). You should provide the number of employees that turn over each year and the number of employees that need to be hired each year to maintain a fully staffed organization at year end.

Assume the organization is able to hire all needed employees each year.  Therefore, the organization is fully staffed at the end of each year.

Turnover is 10 percent per year at the main office.

Turnover is 20 percent for supervisors at both the Detroit and Grand Rapids branches.

Turnover is 30 percent for tellers/clerical personnel at both the Detroit and Grand Rapids branches.

If any of your turnover calculations result in fractional results (e.g., 18.7 people) you should round your results to the nearest whole number.

Grand Rapids branches are added evenly throughout the year. Thus, for the purpose of calculating turnover, on average, there are:

9 Grand Rapids branches in Year 1 (50% of the 18 new Year 1 branches).

24 Grand Rapids branches in Year 2 (18 branches from Year 1 plus 6 [50% of the 12 new Year 2 branches]).

34 Grand Rapids branches in Year 3 (30 branches from Years 1 and 2 plus 4 [50% of the 8 new Year 3 branches]).

Though the number of Grand Rapids branches will grow each year, you will always have 50 Detroit branches across Tables 2.1-2.3.

Provide your responses to the assignment in Tables 2.1, 2.2, and 2.3.  Only include page 3 in your submission.  If you work on the assignment with another individual, only submit one assignment for the two of you (and be sure both of your names are on it).

Due Thursday, January 28 at 5:00pm.

Scoring Rubric (Total Points = 45)

Scoring criteria: 1 point per correct response.

Deductions (this list is not inclusive):

  • Failure to include your name on assignment = 1 point off.
  • Submitting a file that cannot be opened (e.g., something other than .doc, .docx, or .pdf) = 1 point off.

Provide your name(s) here:

Table 2.1 Year 1 Staffing Levels

Employee Category Current* Turnover Hiring Year-End Employment
Main Office 400
Supervisors @ Detroit Branches 200
Tellers @ Detroit Branches 500
Supervisors @ Grand Rapids Branches
Tellers @ Grand Rapids Branches

*Current refers to staffing levels prior to Year 1.

Table 2.2 Year 2 Staffing Levels

Employee Category Turnover Hiring Year-End Employment
Main Office
Supervisors @ Detroit Branches
Tellers @ Detroit Branches
Supervisors @ Grand Rapids Branches
Tellers @ Grand Rapids Branches

Table 2.3 Year 3 Staffing Levels

Employee Category Turnover Hiring Year-End Employment
Main Office
Supervisors @ Detroit Branches
Tellers @ Detroit Branches
Supervisors @ Grand Rapids Branches
Tellers @ Grand Rapids Branche

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.